Toronto Maple Leafs (18-13-8, 21st in NHL) vs. New York Rangers (28-13-1, 7th in NHL)
Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. EST
Arena: Madison Square Garden
Watch: TSN4
Game Day Notes
– Mike Babcock has indicated that Curtis McElhinney will start one of these next two games. Which one should he start is the question. On the one hand, the Rangers are the highest scoring team in the league and lit McElhinney up for five goals less than a week ago. On the other, the Leafs play the Senators in a back-to-back situation tomorrow with two important divisional points on the line. With something to prove in his Leafs debut against the team that got to him last time, McElhinney would certainly be hungry, and he’d have a rested team in front of him as opposed to a tired one tomorrow. The Senators do not play tonight and are waiting in Ottawa after beating Pittsburgh in a good win on Thursday night.
All that said, indications are that Frederik Andersen will get tonight’s start according to Paul Hendrick. If the Leafs win tonight, how strong will Babcock’s temptation be to roll Andersen out again?
– Both teams are coming off of bye weeks, which could mean some early rust, but this is a fun matchup on paper. Both teams are deep, skilled and fast up front and like to open games up (and both will utilize the long bomb breakout to do so, as Anthony mentioned in his excellent piece yesterday). Like how we used to talk about ‘heavy’ Western Conference hockey all the time, this is now the archetype of the modern Eastern matchup — lots of speed and skill.
– Further to the point about how explosive both of these teams can be: This is a meeting of the league’s third (NYR) and sixth-best (TOR) powerplays and the first (NYR) and sixth-best (TOR) overall offenses with the first and sixth-best shooting team-wide shooting percentages at five on five. The numbers suggest the Rangers have benefited from more luck in producing those offensive results, however. They are shooting 10.04% at 5v5 after no team shot better than 9% in 2015-16 (the Rangers led the league last season as well but at 8.95%). The last time a team shot above 10% at even strength come the end of the year: The Maple Leafs in the shortened season of 2012-13. Like the Leafs of that lockout year, the Rangers generate a lot off the rush — and rush shots produce a higher shooting percentage than cycle shots — but it’s very difficult to sustain this pace over a full schedule as the games tighten up.
The Rangers are generating just 51.4 unblocked shot attempts per game (24th in the NHL) compared to the Leafs’ 60.1 (2nd in the NHL). Both teams give up a lot — 59.8 against per game for the Leafs (28th), 56.7 against for the Rangers (24th). That makes the Rangers a bottom-five possession team by CF%.
– The Leafs appear to have the edge at evens but will need to stay out of the box knowing the danger presented by the Rangers powerplay. It’s not been a major issue during the season as a whole — the Leafs take 3.7 minor penalties a game, which is 12th most in the NHL — but of late it has been, with 56 minor penalties taken in the last dozen games (4.7 per game).
Matchup Stats
Statistics courtesy of SportingCharts.com
| Stat | Tor | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44 | 57 |
| Record % | 0.564 | 0.679 |
| Home Winning % | 0.579 | 0.625 |
| Away Winning % | 0.526 | 0.7 |
| Shootout Winning % | 0.167 | 0.667 |
| Goal Differential Per Game | 0.21 | 0.9 |
| Shot Differential Per Game | 0.56 | 0.05 |
| Hits Per Game | 24.5 | 20.8 |
| PIM Per Game | 11.6 | 6.8 |
| Opponent PIM Per Game | 12.1 | 7.8 |
| Goals Per Game | 3.05 | 3.43 |
| Even Strength Goals Per Game | 2.28 | 2.62 |
| Power Play Goals Per Game | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| Shots Per Game | 33.2 | 29.2 |
| Shots Per Goal | 10.9 | 8.5 |
| Team Shooting % | 0.092 | 0.118 |
| Power Play % | 0.224 | 0.232 |
| Goals Against Per Game | 2.85 | 2.52 |
| ES Goals Against Per Game | 2.21 | 2.02 |
| PP Goals Against Per Game | 0.56 | 0.48 |
| Shots Against Per Game | 32.59 | 29.14 |
| Shots Against Per Goal | 11.45 | 11.55 |
| Opp. Team Shooting % | 0.087 | 0.087 |
| Penalty Kill % | 0.836 | 0.831 |
| Save % | 0.913 | 0.913 |
| Goals Against Average | 2.79 | 2.51 |
| Shutouts | 1 | 4 |
| Opponent Save % | 0.908 | 0.883 |
| Opponent Goals Against Average | 3 | 3.41 |
| Opponent Shutouts | 2 | 1 |
Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines
Forwards
Leo Komarov – Nazem Kadri – William Nylander
van Riemsdyk – Tyler Bozak – Mitch Marner
Zach Hyman – Auston Matthews – Connor Brown
Matt Martin – Frederik Gauthier – Nikita Soshnikov
Defencemen
Morgan Rielly – Nikita Zaitsev
Jake Gardiner – Connor Carrick
Matt Hunwick – Roman Polak
Goaltenders
Starter: Frederik Andersen (Expected)
Backup: Curtis McElhinney
Scratched: Josh Leivo
Injured: Martin Marincin (lower body), Ben Smith (lower body)
New York Rangers Projected Lines
Forwards
Chris Kreider – Derek Stepan – Mats Zuccarello
Michael Grabner – Kevin Hayes – J.T. Miller
Jimmy Vesey – Oscar Lindberg – Rick Nash
Pavel Buchnevich – Brandon Pirri – Jesper Fast
Defencemen
Ryan McDonagh – Brady Skjei
Nick Holden – Dan Girardi
Adam Clendening – Kevin Klein
Goaltenders
Starter: Henrik Lundqvist (Confirmed)
Backup: Antti Raanta
