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Toronto Maple Leafs (23-17-9, 18th in NHL) vs. Boston Bruins (26-22-6, 14th in NHL)

Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. EST
Arena: TD Garden
Watch: CBC


Game Day Notes

– Is this the most important Leafs game since late in the 2013-14 season, when the 18-wheeler was teetering over the cliff’s edge with the team’s playoff hopes hanging in the balance? By this point of the 2014-15 season, Randy Carlyle was about to be fired, and the team was in tank mode a year later in 2015-16. The games only increase in importance from here, but it’s probably fair to say, given the playoff implications of this divisional matchup, this is the most important Leafs game in nearly three years.

– On top of that, it feels like the perception will be night and day different with a loss versus a win tonight — at least for a few days. The Leafs will either be one point (or two if it’s an overtime or shootout win) behind Boston for the third divisional playoff spot with five games in hand, or they’ll be in the midst of a four-game losing streak with the media beating the drum about another Leafs collapse down the stretch.

These are the type of games that serve as good experience for the rookies on the team and they’re coming way ahead of the expected schedule.

– The Leafs are 2-0-0 in the season series to date, with Frederik Andersen taking both wins and stopping 56 of 58 shots over the two contests. In his last visit to TD Garden, Andersen was the first star in a game the Leafs didn’t exactly dominate; Andersen stopped 32 of 33 while the Leafs put three past Tuukka Rask on 19 shots plus an empty netter. The Leafs have a chance to complete the sweep tonight and give their playoff odds a significant boost in the process.

– A team that’s struggled to manufacture consistent offense for much of the season, the Bruins have won three of their last four and have scored 15 goals over those four games. That would be a much different story if Brad Marchand wasn’t allowed to get away with not one but two egregious slew foots without any supplementary discipline outside of a fine (made even more outrageous by the fact that Marchand is a repeat offender who has been suspended for the same crime in the past). Marchand is the hottest player in the league since the first incident involving Niklas Kronwall against Detroit, piling up nine points in his last four games. Go back to Marchand’s five-point game against Philadelphia on January 14 and he’s racked up 16 points in his last nine.

– The matchup challenge, then, is obvious from the Leafs standpoint. Patrice Bergeron left the Bruins’ last game with an injury but is considered likely for tonight; his line alongside Marchand and David Pastrnak is the most dominant possession trio of any line in the NHL with more than 100 minutes played together (63% Corsi For). Like Marchand, Pastrnak is white-hot of late with eight points in his last five games. Bergeron, after an uncharacteristic start to the season (10 points in his first 34 games), has inevitably got it together with 16 points in his last 17, including five points in his last four.

In their last visit to Boston, the Bruins ran over the Leafs in the first period, owning 77% of possession in the opening 20. The Bruins finished the game having outpossessed the Leafs 67-33 but lost 4-1. Nazem Kadri wasn’t credited with a single on-ice shot attempt in 4:37 head to head against Bergeron (0 for, 7 against). Tyler Bozak played the most against Bergeron (6:51 at 5v5) and finished with a 17% share of the shot attempts, while Auston Matthews had some success in a smaller sample (3:12 against Bergeron, 5 shot attempts for, 2 against). On the road without last change, the Leafs will need a much better effort from their center group as a whole, as well as their top defence pair of Nikita Zaitsev and Morgan Rielly which got run over by the Bergeron line in that game.


Matchup Stats

Statistics courtesy of SportingCharts.com

StatTorBos
Points5558
Record %0.5610.537
Home Winning %0.5870.478
Away Winning %0.520.552
Shootout Winning %0.1430.5
Goal Differential Per Game0.2-0.09
Shot Differential Per Game0.397.98
Hits Per Game24.421.2
PIM Per Game10.610
Opponent PIM Per Game10.99.8
Goals Per Game3.022.52
Even Strength Goals Per Game2.221.83
Power Play Goals Per Game0.710.57
Shots Per Game32.534.4
Shots Per Goal10.813.7
Team Shooting %0.0930.073
Power Play %0.2320.186
Goals Against Per Game2.822.61
ES Goals Against Per Game2.222.06
PP Goals Against Per Game0.510.44
Shots Against Per Game32.0826.43
Shots Against Per Goal11.3910.12
Opp. Team Shooting %0.0880.099
Penalty Kill %0.8450.864
Save %0.9120.901
Goals Against Average2.772.58
Shutouts35
Opponent Save %0.9070.927
Opponent Goals Against Average2.972.49
Opponent Shutouts25

Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines

Forwards

Leo Komarov – Nazem Kadri – William Nylander
van Riemsdyk  – Tyler Bozak – Mitch Marner
Zach Hyman – Auston Matthews – Connor Brown
Matt Martin – Ben Smith – Nikita Soshnikov

Defencemen

Morgan Rielly – Nikita Zaitsev
Jake Gardiner – Connor Carrick
Martin Marincin – Roman Polak

Goaltenders

Starter: Frederik Andersen (Confirmed)
Backup: Curtis McElhinney

Scratched: Josh Leivo, Matt Hunwick


Boston Bruins Projected Lines

Forwards

Brad Marchand – Patrice Bergeron – David Pastrnak
Frank Vatrano – David Krejci – David Backes
Matt Beleskey – Ryan Spooner – Riley Nash
Tim Schaller – Dominic Moore – Jimmy Hayes

Defencemen

Zdeno Chara – Adam McQuaid
Torey Krug – Brandon Carlo
Colin Miller – Kevan Miller

Goaltenders

Starter: Tuukka Rask (Projected)
Backup: Zane McIntyre

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Alec Brownscombe is the founder and editor of MapleLeafsHotStove.com, where he has written daily about the Leafs since September of 2008. He's published five magazines on the team entitled "The Maple Leafs Annual" with distribution in Chapters and newsstands across the country. He also co-hosted "The Battle of the Atlantic," a weekly show on TSN1200 that covered the Leafs and the NHL in-depth. Alec is a graduate of Trent University and Algonquin College with his diploma in Journalism. In 2014, he was awarded Canada's Best Hockey Blogger honours by Molson Canadian. You can contact him at alec.brownscombe@mapleleafshotstove.com.